Geography coupled with high levels of poverty and population density has made South Asia especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
Speaking ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark from December 7 to 18, 2009, Richard Damania, World Bank Lead Environmental Economist for the South Asia Region said the region faces daunting climate-related development challenges. "Impacts ranging from of higher temperatures to more variable precipitation and more extreme weather events are already being felt in South Asia. It has been projected that these will intensify."
High population levels mean greater pressure on an already stressed natural resource base. By 2050, South Asia's population is likely to exceed 2.2 billion from the current level of 1.5 billion. "With an estimated 600 million people currently subsisting on less than $1.25 a day in South Asia, even small climate shocks can cause irreversible losses and tip a large number of people into destitution," said Damania.
About 70% of South Asians live in rural areas and account for about 75% of the poor. Most of the rural poor depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Damania said agriculture employs about 60% of the labor force, but contributes only 22% of regional GDP. "With their rural economies closely tied to climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, the poor are likely to be disproportionately affected by climate change."
Mountains and Rivers
South Asia is endowed with great rivers, which are the lifelines of the regional economy. The ice mass covering the Himalaya-Hindu Kush mountain range is the source of the nine largest rivers of Asia, including the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Indus. The Himalayan system shapes the critical and often unpredictable monsoon dynamics. It acts as a natural reservoir for sustaining crops and providing groundwater recharge.
The Himalayan ecosystem also sustains some 1.5 billion people who live directly in the floodplains of its many rivers.
There is general agreement that widespread retreat of the global ice cover has been occurring since at least the early 1800s. "With rising temperatures the ice mass of the Himalaya-Hindu Kush could retreat more rapidly than the global average in some locations," said Damania.
The receding trends of some glacier masses could threaten water supplies, livelihoods and the economy of the region. With melting of some glaciers, flood risks would increase in the near future. "In the long term, there can be no replacement for the water provided by glaciers, and this could result in water shortages at an unparalleled scale," warned Damania.
